The Better Price / the numbers
All ten samples
Every figure in one place
The whole desk on one page: each of the ten invented samples, the figure it produced, and the arithmetic that produced it. Nothing on this page is observed; every number derives from the samples and every derivation is shown beside it.
Desk spec
- samples
- 10
- offers sampled
- 1,200
- mean uplift
- +15.3%
- mean cap
- 15.8
- added value per offer
- 2.42
- runtime javascript
- none
The uplift barsample B / three offered selections, market price against boosted price
selection one2.50 → 3.00+20.0%
selection two4.00 → 4.50+12.5%
selection three1.80 → 2.00+11.1%
the market price is the number the same selection carries everywhere else; the boosted price is what this offer quotes for it. Across the 540 single-selection boosts sampled the mean market price was 2.75 and the mean boosted price 3.17, a mean uplift of +15.3%, and the mean implied chance of the selection fell from 39.8% to 34.6%.
Direct answer
Every figure on this site derives from ten invented samples: the offers, the uplift, the worth, the cap, the cap arithmetic, the acca, the revert, the settle, one offer and the month. No figure is observed from a live offer, and no operator, market or person is described by one.
The ten samples and the figures they produce
| Sample | What it is | Chief figure | Where |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | the offers | 1,200 offers in four shapes | overview |
| B | the uplift | mean +15.3%, 2.75 to 3.17 | the uplift |
| C | the worth | 5.00 if it wins, 2.00 on average | the worth |
| D | the cap | mean cap 15.8, 31.1% whole stake | the cap |
| E | the cap arithmetic | 2.00 at 10.00 or 100.00 staked | the worth |
| F | the acca | +5.0% to +20.0% by legs | the acca |
| G | the revert | 14.4% reverted, in four routes | the revert |
| H | the settle | 74.0% whole stake, 45.2% won | the settle |
| I | one offer | 255.00 against 250.00 | the settle |
| J | the month | 1,304.00 added on 10,800.00 staked | the funding |
The five arithmetic steps the whole desk rests on
- The uplift. Boosted price minus market price, and on the samples a mean of +0.42 of price against a mean market price of 2.75.
- The pending chance. One divided by the market price, which the desk takes as the agreed probability: 1 / 2.75 = 36.4% on the mean offer.
- The added value per unit. The uplift multiplied by the chance: 0.42 x 0.364 = 0.153 per 1.00 of boosted stake.
- The capped stake. The smaller of the stake and the cap: a mean of 15.8 across the sample.
- The added value per offer. The per-unit figure multiplied by the capped stake: 15.8 x 0.153 = 2.42.
Worked example / step five, once more, slowly
- uplift per unit of price: 3.17 - 2.75 = 0.42
- implied chance: 1 / 2.75 = 0.364
- value per unit staked: 0.42 x 0.364 = 0.1529
- capped stake: 15.8
- added value: 15.8 x 0.1529 = 2.42
- and across 540 offers: 540 x 2.42 = 1,304
Every figure elsewhere on the desk is one of these five steps applied to one sample. Nothing else is used.